The Mental Pivot Newsletter: No.19
In this issue: A parable about luck, Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness,” a small blog announcement, and a mélange of curated links.
A good story engages the imagination, stirs our emotions, and entertains us.
A great story goes the extra mile; it teaches us a profound lesson, makes us think, and might even surprise us.
There’s a Chinese Taoist parable cited in business management and entrepreneurial circles. It is known by a number of different names, “The Old Man Who Lost His Horse,” “Bad luck? Good luck?”, and “The Taoist Farmer.” The tale is succinct, but it meets my criteria for a great story.
Here’s a retelling by Alan Watts, a prolific writer on the subject of Zen and Eastern philosophy in the mid-20th century (source: Eastern Wisdom, Modern Life: Collected Talks: 1960-1969, p.145):
“Once upon a time, there was a Chinese farmer whose horse ran away, and all the neighbors came around to commiserate that evening. “So sorry to hear your horse has run away. This is most unfortunate.” The farmer said, “Maybe.”
The next day the horse came back bringing seven wild horses with it, and everybody came back in the evening and said, “Oh, isn’t that lucky. What a great turn of events. You now have eight horses!” And the farmer said, “Maybe.”
The next day his son tried to break one of these horses and ride it, but he was thrown, and broke his leg, and they all said, “Oh dear, that’s too bad,” and he said, “Maybe.”
The following day the conscription officers came around to conscript people into the army, and they rejected his son because he had a broken leg. Again all the people came around and said, “Isn’t that great!” And he said, “Maybe.”
In times of uncertainty and upheaval, I find comfort in the farmer’s steadfast perspective.
Now onto the updates...
What’s New on the Blog:
1. Book Notes: “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Taleb’s purview might be financial instruments and the stock market, but don’t mistake this for a book on investing. The stated topic is uncertainty (which the author amply surveys), but the underlying objective is an exploration of epistemology.
Readers sample a dizzying area of ideas ranging from Monte Carlo simulations, ergodicity, induction and the black swan problem, asymmetry, skewness, nonlinearity, skepticism and much more. I say “sampling” because this volume is the inaugural title in Taleb’s multi-volume Incerto series. Fooled by Randomness is just the tip of the iceberg—if you like it, there’s a lot more material to dive into.
2. Articles & Podcasts of Note (Week of 01/11/2021)
I’m retiring this feature from my blog, but do not fret! I will continue posting a weekly collection of curated links exclusively in this newsletter. Readers of the newsletter will effectively see no change (blog readers, however, will have to subscribe to get their fix). As for the blog, I am replacing this feature with a short topical piece every Friday which I’ll be sure to highlight in the “What’s New on the Blog” section of this newsletter.
Now for the highlights from my recent media diet:
A Brief History of Consumer Culture: A look at one of the key social developments of the 20th century, the democratization (and manufacturing by clever marketing types) of consumer desire and the massive economic push for material acquisition as the path to prosperity and happiness.
Arthur Schopenhauer: There Are Only Two Kinds of Writers: Darious Foroux riffs on a quote from the 19th century philosopher: “[There are] those who write for the sake of what they have to say and those who write for the sake of writing. The former have had ideas or experiences which seem to them worth communicating; the latter need money and that is why they write—for money.”
How to Take Notes: Practical tips from Ultralearning author Scott Young.
If You Want Peace, Study War: Historian Margaret McMillan (author of War: How Conflict Shaped Us) ponders the reluctance to study the history of military conflict in our universities and what is lost when we ignore the important lessons of the past.
Internet 3.0 and the Beginning of (Tech) History: Ben Thompson posits that recent events in the United States will push technology back towards open platforms and decentralized solutions (in response to our current cycle where closed, centralized platforms have dominated).
The Lies that Can Undermine Democracy: “While we must have free speech, we must not be free of the consequences of that speech...”
The Platform Is the Enemy: Daniel Markham’s pointed critique explores the existential threat of ceding too much human decision-making to technology platforms.
We Need a New Media System: Matt Taibbi looks at the perverse incentives that have led to a bifurcated media landscape in which two alternate realities, one left-leaning and one right-leaning, simultaneously flourish.
Podcast: No Compromise: Ostensibly a 6-episode NPR series about the 2nd Amendment and gun-rights advocates, but the story quickly encompasses an intricate web of interrelated phenomena: Christian fundamentalism, the abolition of public education, confrontational politics, white supremacy, citizen militias, ideological orthodoxy, social media, twisted entrepreneurship, QAnon, and much more. Released in the Fall of 2020, this series is extremely relevant to the current socio-political climate in America.
Odds & Ends:
Louis Perreira produces a fantastic newsletter, Complexity Condensed. Each week he takes a complex topic and explains it in a mere 500 words. It’s a dicey proposition, but I’ve enjoyed his efforts so far (check out World War I in Exactly 500 Words or Viruses Explained in Exactly 500 Words for a sampling).
If 500 word introductions are too succinct, but you still want a short intro to an interesting topic, the “Very Short Introductions” series from Oxford University Press is an excellent place to look. The series began in 1994 and features 200-page introductory books on a wide range of topics—science, history, philosophy, the arts—from experts in the field. There are over 600 entries now (they publish dozens of new titles annually), the most recent are Enzymes, The American South, Religion, and Silent Film.
Noted film director Michael Apted passed last week. His magnum opus was Up series. This singular documentary series began in 1964 when 14 British children were profiled in the inaugural episode, 7 Up. Subsequent episodes, in which series participants discuss their lives, happiness, disappointments, and changing fortunes, followed every 7 years (the latest installment was 63 Up from 2019). I haven’t finished the series, but it’s a good reminder to resume watching it. The streaming video service BritBox has all episodes except for 63 Up. As usual, YouTube has illicit copies alongside highlight clips and compilation videos.
The Raymond Chandler Rule is a writing technique David Perell highlights in a recent blog piece. The gist of the idea: Chandler would type on index cards (rather than standard sized paper) to ensure that each section of prose was short and had something interesting to say.
Building on the Chandler Rule, Podcaster Alex Blumberg (founder Gimlet Media) offers a similar idea in Gimlet Academy, a podcast series about how to podcast effectively. Here’s how Blumberg recommends maintaining momentum in storytelling: “...something new has to happen every 45 to 90 seconds. And by something new I mean a turn in the story or a new idea or the introduction of a new voice or character, a new piece of information, a shift in emotion, even the entrance (or exit) of music can count.” Good advice from both Chandler and Blumberg. (My notes on Gimlet Academy, for the interested).
Thank you for subscribing to the Mental Pivot Newsletter. If you’re enjoying it, be sure to share it with your friends and spread the word.
I want to be able to deliver a top-notch newsletter to all of you. To that end, I’d love to hear your thoughts on what’s working, what doesn’t, and things you’d like to see more of. You can reach me by replying directly to this email or by adding a comment below.
If this newsletter was forwarded to you, visit this link to subscribe.
Alternatively, you can also read the full archive of posts, book notes and link roundups on my blog: https://mentalpivot.com.